Skip to content
Shabir JawahirCommercial strategy & analytics
A leading e-commerce brand in Sri Lanka05

Financial Forecast and Investment Strategy

Connected revenue, cost, profitability and funding needs in a financial model for a Sri Lankan e-commerce brand, with three scenarios and an investment narrative grounded in stated assumptions.

3

Scenarios, all disclosed

  • Financial Modelling
  • Forecasting
  • Investment

The business question

What funding would the growth plan need across different scenarios?

Growth plans, cost assumptions and funding requirements were maintained separately, making it difficult to assess how they changed together.

Questions about downside risk or capital needs required new calculations and could produce inconsistent answers.

My contribution
Financial forecasting, scenario analysis and investment narrative

My approach

From the source data
to a commercial answer.

  1. Establish the financial base

    I reconstructed historical performance into a consistent starting point for projections.

  2. Connect the assumptions

    I linked revenue, margin, operating cost and cash so a change in an input flowed through the model.

  3. Test the investment case

    I built downside, base and expansion scenarios and tested the assumptions with the greatest effect on funding needs and valuation.

Data used in the analysis
  • Historical revenue and growth
  • Gross margin performance
  • Operating expenses
  • EBITDA and profit after tax
  • Cash requirements
  • Channel and expansion assumptions

The recommendation

Evaluate growth, cash and funding together

Present the base case alongside the downside and expansion cases. Show the assumptions that drive funding requirements and valuation, and make their sensitivity easy to review.

What I delivered

  • Long term forecast model
  • Three case scenario model
  • Revenue and profitability projections
  • Funding requirement analysis
  • Investor facing narrative

The outcome

What changed
for the business.

A clearer investment proposition, supported by connected financial projections, visible assumptions and scenario analysis.

Three scenarios were delivered with visible assumptions. Client financials and funding figures remain confidential.

Explore an illustrative exampleA simplified view of the approach, using example figures.

This example explains the method. The figures are illustrative and should be read separately from the project outcome.

Long Range Forecast

Illustrative figures
3Cases, all disclosed

The downside case makes funding needs and performance risk visible alongside the base projection.

Continue exploring

All case studies
Illustrative executive dashboard with sessions, leads and conversion.

Next case study 06

Executive Digital Dashboard

Made acquisition, conversion and lead quality easier for leadership to review.

Independent digital agency
View case study

Let’s work on it

What decision
is on your desk?

Tell me what you’re trying to decide, what feels unclear and when you need an answer. We’ll start with a short conversation.

Start a conversation on LinkedIn (opens in a new tab)

Direct collaboration · Scoped engagements · Fixed fees